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## Slide 1 2024 SPRING ESTIMATING REVENUE CONFERENCE PRESENTED BY: BERNESHA LIBURD OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH WWW.USVIBER.ORG | BERDATA@BER.VI.GOV PHONE: 340-693-4375 | WWW.USVIBER.ORG | BERDATA@BER.VI.GOV ## Slide 2 USVI REAL Gross Domestic Product Bureau of Economic Research (BER) in collaboration with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ## Slide 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 USVI Real GDP Annual % change. -8.2 -14.8 -6.3 -1.8 -0.4 1.6 -0.7 1.9 2.8 2.2 2.8 2021 2.8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) GROWTH RATE (%) FROM 2011-2021 ## Slide 4 Let’s discuss VISITOR ARRIVALS This presentation provides an overview of visitors to the U.S. Virgin Islands by cruise and air travel. ## Slide 5 USVI TOTAL VISITOR ARRIVALS BY DISTRICT FISCAL YEARS 2017 to 2024 FEBRUARY YTD FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 Feb. YTD Air Visitor Arrivals 784,556 399,217 637,876 187,750 826,823 800,069 756,947 369,023 Cruise Visitor Arrivals 1,921,939 1,186,188 1,480,932 442,027 245,695 1,021,182 1,594,796 779,359 Total Visitor Arrivals 2,706,495 1,585,405 2,118,808 629,777 1,072,518 1,821,251 2,351,743 1,148,382 Air Cruise Total Visitor Arrivals 100,000 600,000 1,100,000 1,600,000 2,100,000 2,600,000 ## Slide 6 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 Feb. YTD Air Arrivals STX 154,377 140,929 167,357 38,682 142,553 141,584 152,098 82,064 Air Arrivals STT 630,179 258,288 470,519 149,068 365,664 658,485 604,850 286,959 Total Air Arrivals 784,556 399,217 637,876 187,750 508,217 800,069 756,947 369,023 Air STX Air STT Total Air Arrivals 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 AIR VISITOR ARRIVALS BY DISTRICT FISCAL YEARS 2017 to 2024 FEBRUARY YTD ## Slide 7 CRUISE VISITOR ARRIVALS BY DISTRICT FISCAL YEARS 2017 to 2024 FEBRUARY YTD Cruise STX Cruise STT/STJ Cruise Visitor Total 0 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 Feb. YTD Cruise STX 138,362 56,345 64,833 17,444 3,841 83,478 169,044 49,705 Cruise STT/STJ 1,783,577 1,129,843 1,416,099 424,583 26,353 937,704 1,425,752 729,684 Cruise Visitor Total 1,921,939 1,186,188 1,480,932 442,027 30,194 1,021,182 1,594,796 779,389 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 ## Slide 8 Let’s discuss Accommodations Such as hotels, guest houses, and villas. ## Slide 9 989,939 988,751 736,274 367,205 499,558 420,326 614,532 732,968 527,515 469,894 300,000 200,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 GUEST REGISTRATIONS FY 2024 FISCAL YTD MAR GUEST REGISTRATIONS FISCAL YEARS 2016-2024 MARCH YTD ## Slide 10 ACCOMMODATION OCCUPANCY RATES OCTOBER 2022 to MARCH 2024 44.1 55.5 59.3 64.9 63.2 71.0 61.5 60.8 61.5 61.0 52.2 41.1 43.1 44.1 88.2 76.6 77.6 80.8 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 ## Slide 11 Let’s Discuss Economic Indicators There are three categories of building permits: private residential, private non-residential, and public building permits. The overall value of the building permits is calculated by totaling these categories. ## Slide 12 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 Total Building Permit Value YTD FEB Public Building Permit Value $27,565 $15,263 $23,286 $38,076 $34,802 $95,389 $50,965 $115,199 $34,568 $56,961 $10,577 Private Non-Residential Permit Value $53,824 $63,743 $95,860 $76,262 $38,697 $29,021 $37,419 $62,756 $27,913 $85,262 $18,218 Private Residential Value $90,485 $87,640 $34,006 $32,503 $110,905 $221,257 $162,883 $208,344 $154,377 $168,529 $80,978 Total Building Permit Value $171,874 $166,646 $153,152 $146,841 $184,404 $345,667 $234,777 $386,300 $216,858 $310,751 $109,772 Public Building Permit Value Private Non-Residential Permit Value Private Residential Value Total Building Permit Value $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- Millions BUILDING PERMITS BY VALUE($) FISCAL YEARS 2017 TO 2024 FEBRUARY YTD ## Slide 13 Let’s Discuss the Consumer Price Index (CPI) According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices in the United States increased by 3.4% in the year 2023. ## Slide 14 USVI INFLATION RATES (%) 2018-2023 2018 6.4% 2019 3.8% 2020 5.7% 2021 8.6% 2022 9.8% 2023 8.4% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ## Slide 15 USVI INFLATION RATES (%) BY MAJOR CATEGORIES 2018-2023 Food Housing Tranportation Alchoholic Bev. Medical Recreation Ed. & Comm. Other Goods 2022 14.2 12.2 17.4 10.9 6.2 6.5 4.1 2.3 2023 7.3 10.7 -2.2 9.7 3.0 3.8 8.5 10.0 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% ## Slide 16 USVI INFLATION RATES (%) FOR SELECTED ITEMS IN MAJOR CATEGORIES 2022-2023 35.8 35.8 50.3 52.7 81.0 56.3 47.9 57.5 56.3 41.6 24.2 22.7 41.6 45.3 52.1 127.9 56.4 43.8 39.7 49.3 67.7 35.8 20 0 40 60 80 120 100 140 POULTRY BEEF EGGS FRUITS & VEG. RENT ELECTRICITY APPLIANCES GAS TIRES TUITION CELL PHONE FOOD HOUSING TRANSPORTATION ED. & COMM. ## Slide 17 USVI 2024-2025 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK VIRGIN ISLANDS Despite economic challenges faced by the world, the US Virgin Islands' economy is exhibiting a robust and sustained growth trajectory. This can be attributed to a flourishing tourism sector, an improving labor market, and substantial business investments. The USVI's government has played a crucial role in bolstering economic growth, particularly in the face of the pandemic. Most economic indicators have shown consistent growth year-to- date, reflecting steady economic growth. However, it is pertinent to note that global headwinds and geopolitical tensions are still prevalent and could pose risks to the positive outlook in the months ahead. ## Slide 18 Thank you! Any Questions? OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH WWW.USVIBER.ORG | BERDATA@BER.VI.GOV Phone: 340-693-4375 | www.usviber.org | berdata@ber.vi.gov www.usviber.org