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DOCUMENT RESUME ED 241 660 UD 023 428 TITLE Estimates of the Population of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Areas: 1970 to 1982. Current Population Reports. Population Estimates and Projections. Series P-25, No. 943. INSTITUTION Bureau of the Census (iOC), Suitland, Md. PUB DATE Jan 84 NOTE 10p.; The two maps will not reproduce. PUB TYPE Statistical Data (110) -- Reports - General (140) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC01 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Birth Rate; Census Figures; *Demography; Migration; *Population Trends; *Research Methodology IDENTIFIERS American Samoa; Guam; Mortality Rates; Pacific Trust Territory; Puerto Rico; Virgin Islands ABSTRACT This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1970, to 1982 for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands of the United States, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the remainder of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. Census counts for 1970 and 1980 are also shown for each of the areas. In addition, the report presents the components of population change for these areas for the 1970-80 and 1980-82 periods--natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration (the number of persons migrating to a particular area minus the number migrating from the area). Information is provided on the different methodologies used to derive data for each area, limitations of the estimates, and data sources. (Author/CMG) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. *********************************************************************** afeisicN 1'46,71 'roes o U.S. Department Of Commerce BUREAU OF THE CENSUS U.S DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NAtiONAL INSTItUTE OF EDUCATION I nucArionat NEsouricis INFONMATION CFNTER ttRICt th" h born roROdu<ad er Oternmd IRO. du. 0.0001 04 Ordadaotlen ofiglebno Mina tbenges nave been made to bmbrOee redrOduCIA qu,d0, 100./%0, vrmY rN opnounic.tatnn n nws deev do orA neCoes$4,61/ rentesnnl oncal ME pOSoOdr a pulmv CURRENT POPULATION REPORTS Population Estimates and Projections Series ID-25, No. 943 Issued January 1984 Estimates of the Population of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Areas: 1970 to 1982 (Estimates in this report supersede those for 1980 and 1981 published in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 919. Estimates for Puerto Rico and the outlying areas for the 1960's and 1950's appear in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 603 and 336.) This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1970. to 1982 for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands of the United States, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the remainder of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands.' Census counts for 1970 and 1980 are also shown for each of the areas. These areas had an estimated population of 3.6 million in 1982. Small areas under American jurisdic- tion in the Pacific Ocean. such as Midway, Wake, and Canton Islands, and Johnston Atoll, are excluded; there were 1,082 persons on these islands in 1980. The report also presents the components of popula- tion change for these areas for the 1970-80 and 1980-82 periodsnatural change (births minus deaths) and net migration (the number of persons migrating in- to a particular area minus the number migrating from the area). In some of the areas shown, net migration is not estimated directly but is derived as the difference between the total amount of change and natural change. METHOD DLOGY Because the availability of data relating to population change varies from territory to territory and the con- centration of special population groups in some of the areas makes it difficult to rely on standard methods, different procedures are used for each area. The pro- cedures used to compute intercensal estimates for 1970-80 are described in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 919. 'As of October 1. 1979, the Canal Zone ceased to be under the "jurisdiction. control, or sovereignty" of the United States. Therefore, population estimates are no longer shown for this area. For estimates through 1976. see Current Population Reports. Series P-25. No. 731. Puerto Rico. The estimates for Puerto Rico were based on the 1980 census and on reported statistics for each of the components of population change. Before 1980, births had been corrected for under- registration. However. the correction has been drop- ped since the births are now nearly fully reported. The migration component was derived from monthly passenger statistics on arrivals to and departures from Puerto Rico compiled by the Commonwealth Govern- ment. The migration estimate for Puerto Rico is the sum of centered 12-month moving averages of the reported monthly data. This compensates for bias introduced by short-term fluctuations in passenger data which reflect the seasonal movement of transients (tourists and other visitors) rather than the movement of migrants to a new residence. The movement of transients tends to cancel out ov,r longer periods. Virgin Islands. The estimates for the Virgin Islands were based on the 1980 census and on reported births and deaths. Component Method II was used to estimate net migration. In this method, net migration is estimated on the basis of school enrollment data using the dif- ference between the estimated population of elemen- tary school age and the population of school age ex- pected*on the basis of the most recent census and births since the census. A more detailed discussion of the method can be found in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 640. American Samoa. The estimates for American Samoa were based on the 1980 census and on births and deaths reported by the Government of American Samoa. Since there is no reporting system for migra- tion, net migration must be estimated indirectly. For April 1, 1980, through July 1, 1982, the average an- For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. D.C. 20402. 2 2 CARIBBEAN AREA 44- 19 nual amount of net migration was estimated based on the level of residual net migration for the 1977-80 period. The 1977-80 period was chosen because the Government of American Samoa conducted a survey in 1977 which could be used in conjunction with the 1980 census and with reported births and deaths to estimate net migration. The procedure used to estimate net migration actually yields an estimate of net migra- tion plus any errors in the data. Guam. The estimates of the population of Guam were developed by adding the components of change to the relevant population base. The July 1, 1980, 1981. and 1982 estimates were derived using a base composed of the 1980 census count less the estimated popula- tion on April 1, 1980. who were born in the United States.' The population base is restricted because of the large and relatively transient Federally affiliated population for which migration is substantial and dif- ficult to 'estimate. Rather than estimate migration for this population group, administrative records were used to determine the number of Federally affiliated per- sons on each estimate date. The following were added to the relevant population base: 1. Natural increase. The excess of births over deaths is based on reported birth and death statistics. Excluded are the births and deaths occur- ring in the U.S. Naval Hospital, which are accounted for in step 4. 2. Change in alien contract workers. This cate- gory is composed primarily of contract workers brought in from the Philippines by the Department of Defense. The estimates are based on information provided by the Guam Department of Commerce. 3. Net alien immigration. These are persons accepted for permanent residence in the United States. The estimate is based on Immigration and Naturalization Service figures on immigrants who reported on their visa application that they intended to live on Guam. It is assumed that 40 percent of the immigrants each year either leave Guam or in- accurately reported their intention of living on Guam. 4. Federally affiliated population.The number of persons in the Armed Forces stationed on Guam was obtained from the U.S. Department of Defense. The Guam Department of Commerce provided data on the numbers of Federal civilian employees and dependents of both Federal civilian employees and the military. 2The April 1. 1980, American population on Guam was estimated based on data furnished by the Guam Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Defense. 3 5. Guamanian inductions less discharges.The number of persons in the Armed Forces in the United States who lived on Guam before joining the military is available from the Department of Defense. One half the change in preservice residence on Guam was used to approximate inductions less discharges on Guam. No data are available on the movement of the nonfederally affiliated population who are not covered above, but this component of net migration is probably not large. Previous tests of the estimation procedure for Guam have shown a very high bias in the procedure. Preliminary analyses suggest this bias may result from inflated estimates of immigration to Guam and from the double-counting of certain groups of federally affiliated persons. To correct for these errors, estimated emigra- tion has been increased from :110 to 40 percent of im- migrants, and an estimate of Guamanian inductions into the Armed Forces less discharges has been incor- porated into the procedure. Northern Mariana Islands. Net migration for April 1, 1980, to July 1, 1982, was estimated based on revis- ed migration estimates for the period 1973 to 1980. The estimates for July 1, 1980, 1981, and 1982 were then derived by adding the components of population change to the 1980 census count. Since net migration is computed as a residual and vital statistics are likely to be underreported, the residual probably includes underreported births and deaths to a much greater ex- tent than in American Samoa. For this reason, net migration is not shown forthe Northern Marianas or the Trust Territory in table 1. Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. excluding Northern Mariana Islands. The methodology used in deriving these estimates was basically the same as that used for the Northern Mariana Islands. The only difference was that the net migration was based on net migration computed using the September 12, 1977, Skill and Oc- cupation Survey conducted by the Office of Planning and Statistics of the Government of the Trust Territory of the Pacific islands and on the 1980 census. It should also be noted that ine. census for the Trust Territory, excluding the Northern Mariana Islands was taken on September 15, 1980. As mentioned above, net migra- tion is not shown in table 1 due to the suspected substantial underreporting of vital statistics. 5 4 PACIFIC AREA LIMITATIONS OF THE ESTIMATES The areas for which estimates are presented in this report are unique in terms of size, location, and com- position. This creates difficulty in developing ap- propriate estimating procedures, much less standard procedures that are applicable for all the areas. The poor quality and absence of adequate data make it difficult to prepare accurate estimates. The estimation tech- niques used in this report were selected either on the basis of a test o methods against the 1970 census or 1980 census' or on the basis of the use of additional data sources not previously available. A comparison of the 1980 census results and the estimates for 1980 is shown in table A. For Puerto Rico, the estimating technique now used remains essentially unchanged from that used for the 1960's and 1970's. The accuracy of the estimate depends very heavily upon canceling out in the migra- tion statistics the large numberpf visitors who move between Puerto Rico and the mainland of the United States. Since gross arrival and departure data obviously contain a large number of tourists, net monthly figures are computed and smoothed using a 12-month moving average. This process provides rough approx- imations of net migration for Puerto Rico. In the case of the Virgin Islands, where Component Method 11 is employed, the difference be- tween the April 1, 1980, estimate and the census count was trivial, only 23 persons. In 1970, the difference using that method in tests was less than 1 percent. The estimating procedure used for American Samoa is a means of bridging a period when no possible in- dependent migration estimates can be developed. The 1970 and 1980 censuses, along with a 1974 special census and the 1977 survey, provide reference points which. in combination with reported vital statistics, can be used to yield acceptable estimates of net migration sFor more information on the 1970 test, see Current Population Reports. Series P25, No. 731. The 1980 test results are reported in Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 919. 5 for the intervening periods. The actual migration for each year in the period is unknown. In the absence of any other information concerning the annual migration pattern, it has been assumed that there was a smooth annual net outmigration during each of these periods. For Guam, as indicated earlier, the estimates are based on a special estimating method which yields point estimates of the various subcategorieS of the population. The test of this method for the 1960-70 period showed an overestimate of about 10 percent. In 1980, the magnitude of the error of closure suggests that this level and direction of error still existed in the estimates. Likely explanations for this include the lack of accurate migration data as well as conflicting infor- mation on persons who were born in the 50 States and on the special populations employed in the current methodology. The estimates for the Northern Mariana Islands con- tain a similar level of error and are biased in the same direction. The 1980 error was 1,794 persons, or 10.7 percent. As was the case for Guam, the lack of any migration data combined with the lack of cen- suses or surveys during the intercensal period poses a serious problem in estimating the Northern Marianas population. The Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands population estimates have essentially the same limitations as those for the Northern Mariana islands. Fortunately, the ex- istence of the 1977 Skill and Occupation Survey pro- vided an additional, and apparently accurate, reference point. The error in estimating 1980 was only 61 per- sons or 0.1 percent. Efforts will continue to be made to correct the estima- tion errors to the degree that available methodologies and data will permit. SOURCES OF DATA Most of the statistics used to prepare the area estimates presented in this report were obtained from the local governments of the outlying areas. Data on births and deaths were obtained from the local govern- Table A. Comparison of 1980 Census and 1980 Population Estimates for Puerto Rico and the Outlying Anb..as tree -. 1980 provisional population Percent 1980 Census estimate Errorl error: Puerto Rico 3,196,520 3,195,130 1,390 argin Islands. 96,569 96,546 23 - tnerican Samoa 32,297 32,260 37 0.7 Alain trust Territory o: the Pacific Islands, excluding Northern Mariana Islands 105,979 116,149 116,251 116,210 -10,272 -61 -9.7 -0.1 qorthern Mariana Islands 15,780 18,574 -1,794 -10.7 - Represents zero. 'The error of closure is the difference between the 1980 census count and the 1980 provisional population estimate. =Dose for percent is 1980 census count. 8 6 ments for Puerto Rico and the outlying areas. Armed Forces data aro based on figures provided by the Department of Defense. School enrollment data for the Virgin Islands were supplied by the Virgin Islands Department of Education. For Puerto Rico, data on migration were supplied by the Puerto Rico Planning Board. The number of Federal civilian employees on Guam was obtained from the Guam Department of Commerce. ROUNDING OF ESTIMATES Each estimate in this report has been rounded in- dependently to the nearest thousand (Puerto Rico) or hundred (other areas) from figures computed to the last digit. Hence, the sum of the parts may differ from the total shown. Percentages are based on unrounded numbers. Table 1. Estimates of the Components of Change in the Resident Population of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Areas of the United States: 1970 to 1982 (Resident population includes persons in the Armed Forces stationed in each area. Each estimate has been rounded to the nearest thousand for Puerto Rico and to the nearest hundred for the outlying areas) Period and area Population at end of period Chance Components of change Number Percent Births Deaths Net migration) APRIL 1, 1980 -JULY 1, 1982 Caribbean Areas Puerto Rico 3,241,000 65,000 2.0 160,000 47,000 -47,000 Virgin Islands 101,500 5,000 5.2 5,500 1,200 600 Pacific Areas American Samoa 33,800 1,500 4.6 2,600 300 -800 Guam 110,800 4,800 4.6 26,600 2900 3-800 Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands' 120,400 4.300 3.7 6,600 900 (6) Northern Mariana Islands 17,700 1,000 5.7 1,400 200 (6) APRIL 1, 1970-APRIL 1, 1980 Caribbean Areas Puerto Rico 3,196,520 484,000 17.9 6744,000 194,000 7-66,000 Virgin Islands- 96,569 34,100 54.6 26,600 5,000 12,500 Pacific Areas American Samoa 32,297 5,100 18.9 10,600 1,400 -4,100 Guam. 105,979 21,000 24.7 230,700 24,100 3-5,700 Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands' 116,149 27,600 31.2 36,000 5,300 (s) Northern Mari..na Islands 16,780 4,600 37.5 5,300 900 (6) 2For 1970-80, ine:udes error of closure (the amount necessary change between censuses). Total births and deaths. Previous reports excluded births and deaths in military 'Includes movement of members of the Armed Forces and their dependents. Previous of movement. 'Census taken September 15, 1980. Periods covered are April 1, 1970- September 15, July 1, 1982. SBecause part of the residual migration in these areas reflects underregistration migration figures are not shown. 6Dirths corrected for underregistration. 7Includes net movement of persons on military air transport. to make the componen as of change add to the net hospitals. reports excluded this type 1980 and September 15, 1980- of vital statistics, Correction was dropped beginning in 1980. 9 7 Table 2. Estimates of the Resident and Civilian Populations of Puerto Rico and theOutlying Areas: 1970 to 1982 (Each estimate has been rounded to the nearest thousand for Puerto Rico and to the nearest hundred for the out- lying areas, Data (July 1, except us notod) Puerto Rieo Virgin Islands. Amrican Samoa Guam Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands Northern Mariana Islands RESIDENT POPULATION 1982 3,261,000 101,500 33,800 110,800 120,400 17,700 1981 3,245,000 98,300 3-3,100 110,000 118,100 17,300 1980 (Sept. 15) - - - - 116,149 - 1980 3,206,000 97,700 32,400 106,900 115,600 16,900 1980 (April 1) 3,196,520 96,569 32,297 105,979 - 16,780 1979 .. 3,165,000 96,200 32,000 103,900 113,300 16,500 1978 3,115.000 95,900 31,400 102,000 111,200 16,100 1977 3.078.000 93.200 30,800 101,200 109,200 15,700 197b 3,024,000 96,200 30.300 102,500 107,000 15,300 1975 2,933,000 94,500 29,600 102,100 104,800 14,900 1974..... 2,885,000 89,900 29,100 101,300 102,500! 14,600 1973... 2,862,000 84,100 28,600 105,600 100,000 14,200 1972 2,846,000 7b,300 28,200 96,800 96,300 13,600 1971..., 2,766,000 70,900 27,700 92,300 92.800 13,000 1970 2,716,000 b3,500 27.300 86,500 .039,400 12.400 1970 (April 1) 2,712,033 62,468 27,159 84,996 188,500 112,200 CIVILIAN POPULATION 1982 3,258,000 101,500 13,800 102,800 120,400 17,700 1981 3.242,000 98,300 33,100 101,500 118,000 17,300 1980 (Supt. 15) - - - 116.100 - 1980.... 3,202,000 97,700 32,400 97,500 115,500 16,900 1980 (April 1) 3,192,000 96,600 32,300 9b,700 - 16,800 1979 3,162,000 96,200 1/ 000 -, 94.600 113.100 16,500 1978 3,111,000 95,900 31,400 92,300 111,000 16,100 1977 3,074,000 93,200 30,800 91,400 109,100 15,700 1976 3,020,000 96,200 30,300 91,800 106,900 15,300 1975 2.933.000 94,500 29,600 91,200 104,800 14,900 1974 2,885,000 89,900 29.100 59,500 102,500 14,600 1973 2,862,000 84,100 28,600 87,400 100,000 14,200 1972 2,846,000 76,300 28,200 84,500 96,300 13,600 1971 2.766,000 70,900 27,700 81,000 92,800 13,000 1970 2,716,000 63,500 27,300 75,200 89,400 12,400 1970 (April 1) 2.701,000 62.500 27,100 71,300 188,300 112,200 __. lEstimates consistent with the Apportionment Census of September 1973. The Federal census of 1970, which showed a population count of 9,640 for the Northern Mariana islands and 81,300 for the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, excluding tho Northern Mariana Islands (plus 3,960 on Kwajalein Island), appears to have been incomplete. U.S. 00,1X01000 PRIMING MICE g 1904 0.420.940/194