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ID 252 618 TITLE INSTITUTION PUB DATE NOTE AVAILABLE FROM PUB TYPE JOURNAL CIT EDRS PRICE DESCRIPTORS IDENTIFIERS DOCUMENT RESUME UD 023 993 Estimates of the Population of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Areas: 1980-1983. Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, Md. Nov 84 9p.; For population estimates for 1970-1982, s'e MD 241 660. Superintenden/ Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washing m DC 20402. Reports - General (140) Currant Populatic ' Reports; Series P-25 n960 Nov 1984 14701/PC01 Plus Postage. Migration; Population Growth; *Population Trends American Samoa; Guam; Northern Mariana Islands; Pacific Trust Territory; Puerto Rico; Virgin Islands ABSTRACT This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1980, to 1983 for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands of the United States, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the remainder of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. For each of these areas, the-report also gives 1980 census counts and the components of population change for the 1980-83 period (i.e. natural change, or births minus deaths and net migration). The following are the report's major points: (1) except for Puerto Rico, all of the areas are growing at a rate well above that of the United States; (2) of all the areas, Guam has exhibited the highest percent growth since 1980; (3) almost half of the large increase in the population of Guam between July 1, 1982, and July 1, 1983 was due to an increase of 2,700 in the number of dependents of the Armed Forces; (4) Puerto Rico grew by only 2.2 percent since 1980, partly because of the high net migration out of Puerto Rico between 1980 and 1983; and (5) the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands all exhibited growth rates between those of Guam and Puerto Rico. (Author/EH) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. A********************************************************************** al.*;TiN ****. 0 1111,011,010111111 aranownoii NA fir EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES PERMEATION CENTER WWI /the duturneni his been improduiled ex nixoneed horn thr pitmen An oniansieban aneektung ekes chanoex hew been nude to «mem, repnefuctinn tteraNy Points nt yew 0 IK mmune Mated Inthn *NW notit di. not netessentv nexewerni une:601 AttL wedeln le poet, U.S Deportmentof Comm* BUREAU OF THE CENSUS 411111.1minimPmk Lib CURRENT POPULATION REPORIS Population Esthrotes and Projectiom Wes NM, No. 90 Mudd November 1994 Estimates of the Population of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Areas: 1980 to 1983 (Escheats' in fhb report supersede those ibr 1980 to 1982 published in OmenPopuladen Reports, Swiss P-28, No., 943. Eatimmes for Puss*" Rico end the outlying stem ler the 1970'x. 1980's, and 1I90's ap- pear Curette Papadetkei Reports, Sofas P-25, Noe. 943, 803, and 338, respeotholy.l ilde report presents estimates of the populadon for July 1,1980, to 1983 for Puerto Rico, the Virgin blends of the Wilted States, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Winds, and the remainderof the Trust Territory of the Pacific Mends (table 11. Censuscounts for 1980 we also shown for each of the antes. timid areas under Arnetican ismisclialon in the Pacc Ocean such asfildway, Wake, and Cordon Wands, and Johnston Atoll am exclude* there were 1,092 persons on these Mande at the time of the 1980 census.' The report also presents the components of population change for these areas for the 1 period. The com- ponents of population change ererotund chew births denim deaths) and net migration (the number of persons migrating kno a particular arse minus the number migrating from the areal.' kw some of the ems OMR, net Wauseon is not estinuned directly but is derived res the deference between the total amount of change and natural dime. Except for Puerto Moo, eN of the areasestimated ere grow- ing at a rate well above that of the Abdted States 13.3 per- cent from April 1, 1990, toJut/ 1, 19831. Of ell the areas. GAM has exhibited the highest percentgrowth since 1980, 9.9 percent. Almost half of the large increase kw the porting- ton of Guam between July 1,1992. and July 1. 1 fa3, was due to an increase of 2,700 in the number of dependents of the Armed Forces. Puerto flingiew by only 2.2 percent since 1980, pertly because of the high net milregen outof Puerto Rico (-90,000) between 1980 and 1993. The Wren islands. Amadoen Samoa, the Northern Mariana Mande, and the Must Territory of the Pacific: islands almddblted growth rates be- tween those of Guam and Puerto Rico. Ae of Beater I, UM the Came Zara mood to be murder the larbeeelost, eastre1, ar taveniepte of row UMNII Mall& Therstore, -P0P4oden ashralen are 811 blew dray *a 116 arsa Fareakeetie thank 197e, we Comm ftweletien Ramo, ObriseiLle, No. 731. ARTHOOOLOGY Because the availability of data relating to population change varies from territory to tieritory and the OGROIIIMM don of special population groups in some of the erne niches it difflixdt to rely on standard methods, different procedures are used for each wee. Puma Mom The eadmites for Puerto Moo win based on the 1990 census and on reported statistics for mush of the components of populadon change. The miloadon cromponent was derived from rnonedy passengerstatistics on arrivals to and departures from Puerto Rico by the Cow mon:meld' government. The mktration asthma. for Puerto Rico Is the sum of centered 12-month moving averages of the reported monthly data. This compensates for bias in- traduced by short-tem fluabretions in passenger data whites reflect the seasonal movement of transients (tourists aid other *here) rather than the moventeraof migrants toe new residence. The movernern of transients tends to cancel out over longer pedods. Virgin lobed& The estimates for the Vkgin Mends were band on the 1990 census and reported births and deethe. Com- ponent Method II was used toestimate net nigretion. kw this method, net migratkin is estimated on the bees of school enrolment data, using the cilfaranoe between the estimMed population of elementary school age and the population of school age expected on the basis of the mostrecent Gangue end births since the census. A more detailed dominion of the method can be found in CunardPopuladon Reports Swiss P-28, No. 840. Animism Some& The estimates for Am et Some were bused on the 1980 mew end births and (teethe reported by the Government of American Samoa. Sines then is no Far ode by do itiesristendnit of itemeneen.ILL Germs Pflatiapprnaa, Welh101$1. MC. 70402. 2 CARIBBEAN AREA reporting system for nitraden, net migration must be eedmated indirectly. For Ari 1, 1980, geoegh July 1,1983, the average annual smote* of net negradon was asdmated based on the level of residual net migration for the 1977-80 period. The 1977.80 period was chosen because theGovern- ment of American Soma conducted a surveyin 1977 which could be used in conjunction with the 1980 census and reported births and deaths to estimate net migration. Goan. The estimates of the population of Guam were developed by adding the components of change to the rele- vant population base. The July 1, 1980, 1981. 1982. end 1983 estimates were *wilted using a base composed of the 1980 census count less the Endowed population on April 1, 1980, who ware born In the United States.* The popubsdon base is restricted because of the large and relatively transient Feder* affilated population for which Amnion is substen- dal and difficult to estimate. Rather thanestimate rnigradon far Ode population group, admirdstrathre records were used to detonable the number of Federally aniseed persons on each estimate date. The fallowing were added to the rele- vant population base: 1. NIKUrglincrease. The excess of bird's; over deaths to the population la based on reported birth anddeath statistics. Excluded are the births and *Naha occurring in the U.S. Naval Hospital, which ere accounted for in step 4. 2. Mango in then contract workers. Title category is com- posed primarily of contract workers brought in from the PhaPokole by the Department of Defense. The estimates are based on information provided by the (Warn Depart- ment of Commerce. 3. Net don inwnipotion. These are persons accepted for permanent residence in the United States. The estimate is based on brunigration and Naturalization Service greet on immigrants who reported ontheir vise eon that they intended to Ws on Guam. It is assumedthet 40 per- cent of the burnkprints each year either leave Guam or inaccurately reported their intention of Hying on Gwyn. 4. Roden* aftfflotird porwation. The number of Armed Forces stationed on Guam was obtabled from the U.S. Department of Defense. The Guam Department of Com- merce provided data on the members of Federal civilian employees and dewclaws of both Federal civErin embalm and the mfftwy. 5. Moomonlon inductiors leas diachorgoo. The number persons in the Armed Forces in the United States who MID Apri 1,1850, Anwrican popidetion on Owen wasmuted based en dais hanished by the Guam Dooartment of Comm, and the U.B. Detwinssid of Defense. Wad on Owns before joining the military is avalkible from the Department of Defense. Onehalf the change in pre- sentee residence on Guam was used to approximate in- ductions less discluages on Guam. No data we available on the movement of the non- fedeney affiliated poptdsdon who are not covered shove. but Oda amigo/me of net migration is probably not large. Previous tests of the estknation procedurefor Gain have shown a high bias In the procedure. Preibninery analyses sug- gee this bias may result from inflated estimates of knmigre- tion to Guam and from the clouble.countbmof certain wraps of Federally afflisted persons. To correct for these errors, estimated emigration has been bowed from 20 to 40 per- cent of immigrants, and an regimesof Guamanian Inductions into the Amid Forces less discharges has been incorpereed Into the procedure. Honkers Marlene Wends. Net migmtion for April 1, 1980. to July 1, 1983, was embussed based on revised miwadon estimates for the period 1973 to 1980. The eadmates for July 1. 1980, 1981,1982, and 1983 were then derived by adding the components of populstion change to the 1980 census count. Since net migration is computed as s residual and vita steads= area likely to be underreported, the residual probably includes underreported births anddeaths to a much wester extent than in American Samoa. For this reason, net migration is not shown for the Northam Marianas or the Trust Territory In table 1. Trot Tinton of the Paella Islands, excluding Nudism Marlene Wade. The methockdogy used hr derivkm these estimates was bade* the same se that used for the Northern Madam Wends. The only difference was that the net Inigradon was based on net titration computed using the September 12, 1977, Sidi and Occupation Survey con- ducted by die Office of Planning and Statisticsof the Govern- ment of the Trust Tinton of the Pectic Wanda end the 1980 census. It should also be noted that the canals for the Trust Ti. nery, exchwing the Pheitem Mertens Wands was taken on September 18,1080. As mentioned above, net migration is not shown in table 1 because of the suspected substargial undernmortbm of vital statistics. MUTATIONS OF THE ESTWAATES The areas for which estimates we presented in Ode report are unique in terms of eta, location, and composition. This creates difficulty in developing appropriate sedmating pro- cedures. math less standard procedumeItult am appal:able for all the awes. The poor quality and absence of eclogues dote make it difficult to propels accrete estknetis. The esgmation techniques used in We report wont adabtod silver on the basis Of a test of methods against the 1970 census HAWAII .4) 1;) or 198canwas or on the bads of the use of additional data - imam not previously *ridable. A comparison of the 1.980 census reader aid the esdnvaes for 1980 la shown In tab A. For Puerto Rico, the eatimathro technique now used remake assentildly unchanged from that used for the 1900's and 1870'e. The accuracy of the estimate depends very hem* on the cencelledon in the mkpation etatiedcs of the large itielher of visitors who move between Puerto ago nod the mainland of the Waked States. Once gross arrival mid de- parture data obviously contain a large number of tourists, net monthly Roues are computed end imoothed using a 12- month moving average. This process provides rough approx- imations of net migration for niers Rico. Tie procedine setbnesed Puerta Mao's popuistion less then 0.1 pacer* from the 1980 census. k thecae of the Virgin kisathi, where Component Method N is enslaved, the difference badmen the Apd 1, 1980. estimate and the census omen was vivid. only 23 persons. In 1970, the dffemnos using that method hi testa was has then 0.1 percent. The estimating procethee used for American Samoa is a means of inkking a period when no possible independent migration estimates can be developed. The MO census. along with the 1977 survey, provide reference pokes which. in combinadon with reported vital statistics, can be used to Vehl acceptable estimates of-net migration for the Maim- ing period. The astral migration for each year in the period is urenown. in the absence of any other informatktN con. mem the annual adoration pattern, it hoer been assumed that there was a smooth annual net ordmigration during this period, and that this pattern has continued on throw., each year until the estimate date. For Guarn, as indented eadier, the estimates we based on a spooled min:wing method which yhichr point estimates of the various subcategories of the population. The test of this "For MOM adomwainn an*, 11170100. saw Cement PaptAsdon /Wort% 11eMae P-26, No. 731. Tho 1 iiISO OW na UM! are feparted In Spies P-26. No. 019. . method for the 1980-70 period rimed an overestimate of about 10 pauent. This level and direction of error ail misted hi the estimate in 1980. 4.1kety retpitnadons for this h. -Jude the lack of accurate migradon data as web as conflicdng formatitm on persons who were barn In the 50 States and on the special populations employed in the current methodology. The sairnates for the Northern Marlene Wands contain a similar level of error and are biased in the same direction. The 1990 error wee 1,794 persons, or 10.7 percent. As was the case for Gum. the lack of any nagration data maimed with the lack oensuees or surveys during the intercereal period poses a serious problem in estimating the Nathan Marianas P0Puladon. The Trust Territory of the Pacific Wands PoPutation Minutes have esemitially the same *nitrations as those for the *Were Marlene Wends. Fortuna*, the 1977 Skill end Occupeden Survey provided an acketionld, and apparently act- etwate, Iefenonce palm. The error in estimedng 1880 was only 01 persons or 0.1 percent. fifers self continue to be made to correct the estirnathm errors to the degree that aveffable meth odoireaes and data up. permit. SOURCES OF DATA Most of the mastics used to prepare the area estknates presented in this mart were obtained from the local govern- ments of the outlying areas. Data on births and *miss were obtained from the local governments for Puerto Rico and the orniying areas. Anned Forces data are based on Nom pro- vided by the Coast Guard end the Department of Defense. Schad ermalinent data for the Virgin Islands were sierpNed by the Virgin islands Department of Education. Far Puerta Rico, date on ridgration were supplied by the Puerto Rico Nan- rev Dowd. The number of Federal dvNian employees on Guam was obtained from the Guam Department of Commerm Tubb A. Conyarlson of 1980 Ce*ss end Popuhrtbn Estknatos for Puerto Rico and Outlying Areas Area Puerto Rico Virgin Islands American limos Ouns Northern Marione Islands Trust Territory of the Pacific Weeds, eaclwoUs Northers *rims 2414100, Ingweeeeta 1960 census count. the error of closure is the difference between the 1960 prowisitwal population estimate and 3 Seen for percent is 1950 census comet. 19160 ceases 3,196,520 96.369 32,297 105,979 16,760 . 116.149 provisional population estimate Percent Ircor a 3,195,130 -1,390 . 96,546 -23 - 32,260 -37 -0.1 114,251 10,272 9.7 10,574 1,794 10.7 134,210 61 0.1 7 t he RMIMMIG !mums Each 'admits Instils report has been rounded Independently to the nearest thousand Pulite fliod or hundred father srees) from figures computed to the lest daft. Hence, the sum of the pens may differ from the total shown. Parcentages ayes based on mounded numbers. Table 1. Estimates of the Components of Clow in the Resident Popo lobo of Puerto Rico and Outlying Arm: April 1. Mt to July 1, 1993 (Resident population includes persons Ix the Armed Forces stationed in each area. Roth eatimate has been rounded to the nearest thousand for Puerto Rico mad tt the nearest hundred for the out/ tine areas.) CO -Change Components of the*** reriod and area Population at end of Net period P skier Percent Nirthe Death4 migraine Caribbean areas: Poem Rico 3,267,000 70,000 2.2 229,000 69,000 -90,000 Virgin Islands 103,800 7,200 7.5 .6,100' 1,700 800 Pacifi_ stew American Samoa 34,300 2,200 6.8 3,700 500 -1,100 Osma 116,400 10,400 9.8 19,500 11,400 22,200 Northern Mariana Islands 18,200 1,400 8.6 2,000 300 sie Trost Territory of the Pacific islands,' 124,000 7,900 6.8 11,700 1,600 an ** Because part of the residual migration in this area reflects onderregistration of vital statistics, migration figures are not shown. I Total births and deaths. 2 Includes eovement of members of the Armed Forces and their dependents. 2 Excludes Northern Mariana Islands. Census taken September IS, 1980. Period covered in September 15, 1980 to July 1, 1963. Tide 2. Estimates of the Resident and Chalon Populations of Puerto MOD and Outlying Are 1900 to 1953 (IAch asthma*. hes been rounded to the 'Nearest thousand for Puerto Rico and to the nearest hundred for Nate (July 1, except as noted) Puerto Rico Virgin Islands American *moos Clam Northern Mariana Islands Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands' RUINS? POPULATION 411 1983 3,267,000 103,100 34,500 116,400 18,200 124,000 1982 3,262,000 101,500 33,600 110,700 17,800 121,400 1981 3,245,000 98,300 33,100 110,000 17,300 118,600 1980 (Sept. 15) ** ** ** a* ** 116,149 1980 3,206,000 97,700 32.400 106,900 16,900 115,600 1980 (April 1) 3,196,520 96,569 32,297 105,979 16,780 ** CIVILIAN POFMATION 1983 3,262,000 103,800 34,500 106,400 18,200 123,900 1982 3,230,000 101,300 33,00D- 102,700 17,600 121,400 1981 3,242,000 011,300 33,100 101,500 17,300 118,300 1980 (Sept. 15) ** *0 ** 0* ** 116,100 1980 3,202,000 97,700 32,400 97,500 16,900 115,500 1980 (April 1) 3,192,000 96,600 . 32,300 96,700 16,800 ** ** No census held on that date. 1 Includes Northern Noriana Islands.