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Research Theme 7: Coral Reef Resilience The Virgin Islands Reef Resilience Study 2023 Annual Conference Dr. Tyler Smith Collaborations 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith - Coral Reef Resilience Collaborations Meet The Team - VIRRS Tyler B. Smith, Ph.D. Lauren K. Olinger, Ph.D. 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Marilyn E. Brandt, Ph.D. Peter J. Edmunds, Ph.D. And 38 more! Virgin Islands Reef Resilience Study Goal 1 Determine the internal and external drivers most critical to coral reef ecosystem resilience in the USVI and identify targets for restoration of resilience. Hypothesis I (H I): The resilience of USVI’s marine ecosystems is reduced through interacting stress drivers but may be modulated through increased genetic and species diversity. 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Sonora Meiling Approach Virgin Islands Reef Resilience Study 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Mennebeck Reef, St. John. Data courtesy of the National Park Service 2005 Bleaching 2017 Hurricane Irma 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Resistance 2005 Recovery 2007-2017 Study Sites Relative change in coral cover (%) Absolute change in coral cover (% per year) St. Croix St. Thomas and St. John Territorial Coral Reef Monitoring Program Virgin Islands National Park Service California State U. Northridge - Edmunds 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Resistance Community Susceptibility Realized environmental stress Smith et al. 2016 Genetic Susceptibility Acclimation Degree Heating Weeks Calculated from TCRMP sites in bleaching year 2019 + 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Recovery 2007-2017 Absolute change in coral cover (% per year) Satellite Chlorophyll a Modeled Wave Power Coral Competition Herbivory Some examples of potential drivers of recovery Internal External 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience T. Smith Create a comprehensive database (50 long-term coral reef monitoring sites) and identify gaps Develop metrics of resilience Analyses of long-term coral reef data to uncover drivers of resilience Year 4 Goal 1 Determine the internal and external drivers most critical to coral reef ecosystem resilience in the USVI and identify targets for restoration of resilience. • Objectives  Objective 1: Database Development Objective 2: Metric Development Objective 3: Analyses 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience R. Ennis MacNeil et al. 2019 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Website homepage of core data repository website homepage of core data repository 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience 35 sites, 27 genera, 15 years (link) 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Completed Near Complete In Progress 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Results, Outcomes & Accomplishments The VIRRS workshop held November 3 & 4, 2023 at UVI ~34 participants from within and outside the USVI 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Virgin Islands Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research August 16, 2023 Dear Colleagues, We are pleased to invite you to the Virgin Islands Reef Resilience Study (VIRRS) Workshop on November 3-4, 2023! The VIRRS workshop is hosted by the Virgin Islands Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (VI-EPSCoR) and will be held at the University of the Virgin Islands on the St. Thomas campus. Continue reading for more details about the workshop, and please RSVP to indicate your availability by Wednesday August 30 by replying to the invite email or by sending a separate email to lauren.olinger@uvi.edu. The primary goal of the workshop is to discuss the core VIRRS study. This study integrates benthic survey and biophysical data that comprise external (physical oceanography) and internal (coral reef health and biodiversity) drivers of reef resilience. Data sources include three long-term monitoring programs and recent models of oceanographic circulation, connectivity, and satellite-based water quality, spanning ~40 sites and two decades. The goal of this study is a unified analysis of these datasets to determine the internal and external drivers that are most critical to coral reef ecosystem resilience and identify targets for restoration in the region. Workshop discussion topics will include overview of the findings, validity of the analyses and underlying data, management implications, and timeline for publication. Participants may divide into working groups to (1) discuss follow-up research questions and approaches to answering those with either existing data or new experiments and (2) develop driver- or site-specific metrics for resistance and recovery after disturbances. This research is timely given the current unprecedented SST and likely bleaching in the next few months. We will host two zoom meetings, one before the workshop (mid-October) to orient everyone to the data and analyses, and the second after the workshop to share progress on the core study and any follow-up research. We may offer short virtual sessions during the in-person workshop for those who cannot travel, but we highly recommend attending in person to get the full experience. Travel and lodging costs for participants will be covered by VI-EPSCoR, and we will provide more details about coordinating travel plans in the coming weeks. Please let us know if you have any questions. We look forward to hearing back and working with you all on this exciting project! Regards, Lauren Olinger Tyler Smith VIRRS Workshop Organizers 2 John Brewers Bay I St. Thomas, USVI 00802 I www.viepscor.org Meet The Team – Connectivity & Biodiversity Tyler B. Smith, Ph.D. Lauren K. Olinger, Ph.D. 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Daniel M. Holstein, Ph.D. Benjamin Farmer Sonaljit Mukherjee, Ph.D. Connectivity and Biodiversity Study Goal 2. Understand the impact of regional larval connectivity patterns on biodiversity patterns. Hypothesis: Stronger larval sink locations, or high centrality habitats, that receive coral larval input from diverse upstream habitats are areas of increased species diversity and, hence, resilience 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Develop regional connectivity model for coral reef organisms Determine network and habitat connectivity metrics and corresponding estimates of biodiversity Analyze the relationship between realized diversity and connectivity, stress, and past disturbances Year 4 Goal 1 Understand the impact of regional larval connectivity patterns on biodiversity patterns • Objectives  Objective 1: Database Development Objective 2: Metric Development Objective 3: Analyses 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience S. Heidmann 1272 surveys total 264 > 30 m depth 0 23 46% Coral Cover Legend Example biological data: The National Coral Reef Monitoring Program 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience US Caribbean Regional Ocean Model allows the tracking of virtual particles with the Connectivity Modeling System Paris CB, Helgers J, van Sebille E, Srinivasan A (2013) Connectivity Modeling System: A probabilistic modeling tool for the multi-scale tracking of biotic and abiotic variability in the ocean. Environmental Modelling & Software 42:47-54 Connectivity 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Research, Outcomes & Accomplishments 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience 41:961–972 Resilience Disease Oceanography Restoration Education & Outreach Research Interdependencies The marine resilience theme is strongly dependent on past and current research investments and will feed directly into management (e.g., restoration) and education and outreach 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Data for the masses! Engagement Management & Restoration What is Possible with Investment Training Tomorrow’s Scientists A quality-controlled database of multiple coral reef and oceanographic data sets for the territory. Engagement of multiple professionals on a central project of high importance for understanding coral reef resilience Evidence-based directions for more effective resource management and restoration Highlights the utility of multiple investments in ecosystem data collection and will be an attractor for more funding Contributes to the training of students and post-doctoral researchers Broader Impacts, Intellectual Merit, & Diversity 2023 SITE VISIT Dr. Tyler Smith – Coral Reef Resilience Thank you! Dr. Tyler Smith EMAIL: tsmith@uvi.edu PHONE: 786-564-4090 2023 SITE VISIT